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“No #democracy movement has ever failed when it was able to mobilize at least 3.5 % of the population to #protest over a sustained period At that scale, most soldiers have no desire to suppress protesters. Why? Because the crowd includes family members, friends, coworkers, and neighbors. With a population of 327 million, the U.S. would need to mobilize about 11.5 million people to assert popular, democratic power on the government.”

3.5%

bigthink.com/the-present/the-3

HT bsky.app/profile/im-mark-aylwa

Big ThinkTo overthrow a tyrant, try the 3.5 Percent SolutionA study of 323 uprisings against repressive regimes yields stunning insights.
Álvaro Herrera

@fsinn Actually, they did fail in during the 2019 protests. They mobilized a lot more than 3.5% of the country population, and after several years, they (we) are all back in the same situation. Nothing has changed.

@alvherre @fsinn I don't know much about those protests but the article insists to "keep their protests nonviolent." Could that have been one of the reasons?
To maintain nonviolence might be difficult when the authorities escalate, but the East German revolution was completely nonviolent from the protestors side.

@kokemikal @fsinn I don't think the problem can be attributed to protest violence. It's an interesting story of a politics failure, where the progressive movement was given executive power and was unable to wield it sensibly. (They're still in government, but haven't made any inroads into their agenda.)

A constitutional process was set in motion, but it was defeated by its own triumphalism. Very sad times, though not as sad as US currently.